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SpaceX’s Starship Reaches Orbit as Upper‑Stage Engine Failure Shortens Mission

TD Cowen’s new Buy centers on AI compute leasing as the company’s next growth engine while warning of heavy capital needs and execution risk

Overview

  • Starship’s 14th test flight reached orbit on Monday and deployed 26 next‑generation (V3) Starlink satellites even though an upper‑stage engine malfunction shortened the mission.
  • Investors initially pushed the stock higher intraday but SpaceX shares closed about 3% lower at $145.47 on Monday and recovered roughly 1% in early trading the next day.
  • TD Cowen initiated coverage with a Buy and a $200 price target, arguing SpaceX’s terrestrial and space‑linked AI compute leasing will drive most future revenue and citing customers such as Google and Anthropic.
  • Analysts are broadly bullish with roughly 76% rating the stock a Buy and a consensus price target near $223–$224, but firms warn that building and operating orbital data centers brings major engineering, latency and maintenance challenges.
  • The company reported about $23 billion in trailing‑12‑month revenue and faces a test of whether faster Starship launch cadence and heavy capital spending can validate aggressive multi‑year revenue forecasts and reduce operating costs for large AI customers.