SpaceX Upper Stage Expected to Strike Moon Early Wednesday
Scientists plan before-and-after imaging of the impact to study ejecta and test gaps in how large rocket hardware is tracked and discarded
Overview
- An abandoned Falcon 9 upper stage from a January 2025 lunar mission is predicted to hit the Moon on Wednesday, Aug. 5, at about 2:28–2:35 a.m. ET at roughly 5,400 mph.
- Models forecast a brief flash, an ejecta plume and a crater roughly 20–30 meters wide with energy comparable to about three tons of TNT, and the impact poses no danger to Earth.
- NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, South Korea’s Danuri and coordinated ground telescopes are scheduled to capture images before and after the strike to study the plume and crater formation.
- SpaceX says it followed disposal procedures and blames solar radiation pressure plus gravitational perturbations for the course change, while independent analysts say the event highlights weaknesses in cislunar tracking and disposal practice.
- The collision adds to a growing policy debate about how to catalog and manage large objects in the Earth–Moon environment as more lunar missions leave heavy hardware in unstable orbits.