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SpaceX Shares Slide Below IPO Price as Market Grows Wary

Rising tradable supply from staged lockups and heavy capital plans have investors questioning whether recent price targets match the company's cash flow and losses.

Overview

  • The stock fell below its $135 IPO price this week, first dipping on Wednesday, and continued sliding into the $120s and $130s despite a high‑profile Starship test that failed to move the market.
  • A tiny public float after the record $75 billion listing left the stock highly sensitive to retail buying, options hedging and fast index‑related ETF flows that amplified early gains and then volatility.
  • Ranked lockup terms will make about 911.5 million shares eligible for sale after SpaceX’s first quarterly report, a large near‑term supply overhang that investors fear could push the price lower.
  • SpaceX has pursued large, debt‑backed moves to fund AI and Starship work, including an all‑stock AI acquisition and reported note sales of roughly $20–25 billion, raising questions about near‑term funding needs.
  • Underwriting banks issued tightly clustered, bullish price targets (median $225) while collecting roughly $500 million in fees, a pattern critics call copycat optimism that investors must weigh against SpaceX’s 2025 revenue of under $19 billion and a GAAP loss near $4.9 billion.