Particle.news

SpaceX Shares Slide Back to IPO Levels as Market Awaits Lock‑Up and Earnings Test

Early‑August earnings with a staged lock‑up release will test whether Starlink growth and recent large financings can sustain SpaceX’s lofty valuation.

Overview

  • SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026 at $135, opened near $150 and briefly climbed above $225 before the stock retreated to about $145 in mid‑July.
  • Starlink generated roughly 60% of 2025 revenue as SpaceX reported $18.67 billion in sales and a $4.94 billion net loss for 2025, leaving the company dependent on Starlink for near‑term cash flow.
  • Management announced heavy capital moves during the rally, including a reported $20–25 billion notes sale to fund AI and rockets and an all‑stock roughly $60 billion purchase of Anysphere’s Cursor that raises dilution and execution questions.
  • The IPO’s tiny tradable float, heavy retail and options flows, and fast‑tracked index inclusions such as the Nasdaq‑100 on July 7 amplified early volatility and helped push ETF demand into the stock.
  • A near‑term liquidity test arrives in early August when the company’s first public earnings report coincides with the first lock‑up tranche that will make about 911.5 million shares eligible for sale and could pressure the price.