Overview
- The Nasdaq-100’s September rebalance doubled SpaceX’s index weight after lockup expirations expanded the public float, forcing index funds to buy materially more SPCX and concentrating passive demand.
- Options data showed an unusual spike in put activity, including thousands of contracts at deep out‑of‑the‑money strikes, which traders say can reflect hedging or income-selling strategies that magnify near-term liquidity swings.
- Analysts and underwriters are projecting very large AI revenues for SpaceX over the coming years, with public forecasts ranging into the hundreds of billions by 2030 and banks citing major monthly customer commitments from firms such as Anthropic and Google.
- The company reported rapid top-line growth but remained unprofitable in Q2 2026, with about $7.8 billion in revenue and a $541 million net loss, while Connectivity (Starlink) showed operating profit and the firm continues heavy capital spending on AI compute and launches.
- Technical execution is the wildcard: Starship test flights, including a scheduled Flight 14 on Sept. 28, and the plan to deploy NVIDIA-powered orbital AI are central milestones that market participants say must proceed for the large AI revenue thesis to be credible.