Overview
- The stock jumped roughly 8% on Monday to the low‑$170s after Morgan Stanley reiterated a Buy with a $300 target and the company completed several high‑profile launches that included a crewed NASA mission and an orbital test carrying Google AI chips.
- Morgan Stanley’s note and heavy call buying helped drive the rally, but analysts remain split on valuation with price targets ranging widely and options traders showing elevated activity and lower implied volatility than at the IPO.
- Operational momentum is real: SpaceX reported about $7.81 billion in quarterly revenue (up ~92% year over year) and has increased launch cadence and Starship test activity that investors view as near‑term growth drivers.
- A developing financing story clouds the upside: multiple outlets report SpaceX is considering roughly $40 billion of new debt to fund Nvidia GPU purchases while independent research (Evercore) projects $50–$53 billion of near‑term AI capex, a buildup that the company has not fully confirmed.
- Key catalysts that will test the rally are late‑October third‑quarter earnings and upcoming Starship flights, with those results likely to clarify whether the AI revenue ramp and heavy capex plans can justify current investor optimism.