Overview
- SpaceX completed the largest U.S. IPO in mid‑June and saw its share price surge to intraday peaks before sliding about 24–27% from those highs, leaving the company trading well above its $135 IPO price but at extremely high revenue multiples.
- Trailing twelve‑month price‑to‑sales ratios sit around 100–115x based on roughly $18.7 billion of 2025 revenue, a level critics call unanchored and bulls say could be justified only if large AI and Starlink revenue ramps materialize.
- Starlink remains the main profit engine, accounting for roughly 60% of 2025 revenue and more than 10 million subscribers, while the AI business drove heavy losses and roughly $12.7 billion of AI capital spending in 2025.
- Market structure amplified the volatility: only a tiny share of equity was tradable at listing, large retail allocations and active options and short positions have driven swings, and short interest recently rose to about 31% of the free float.
- Near‑term catalysts that could move the stock include confirmed Nasdaq‑100 inclusion on July 7 with estimated ETF inflows, upcoming public earnings and staged lockup expirations that will increase the tradable float, and any further capital raises for AI infrastructure.