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SpaceX IPO Pops and Pulls Back With AI Deal and Lockup Risks

An all-stock Anysphere acquisition, a planned $20 billion bond sale, a staged lockup create near-term dilution and supply pressure that could reshape the stock’s valuation.

Overview

  • SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 on June 12 and raised roughly $75 billion with underwriters later boosting proceeds to about $85.7 billion, making it the largest IPO ever.
  • The stock surged above $225 in early trading then slid back over June 16–18, a two-day drawdown that erased about $620 billion in market value from intraday highs.
  • On June 16 the company announced a roughly $60 billion all-stock deal for Anysphere (Cursor), a move markets flagged as a direct dilution trigger for the post-IPO rally.
  • Only about 5% of shares are in the public float and recent index fast-entry rules forced early passive buying, while a staggered lockup lets insiders sell up to 20% near the company’s first public earnings in late July or early August and a planned $20 billion bond could refinance xAI bridge debt and add financing complexity.
  • SpaceX’s filings show Starlink was the only profitable segment in 2025 and drove most revenue, while AI and Starship investments produced large GAAP losses, producing a wide split of analyst price targets and deep uncertainty about execution.