Overview
- The object is a roughly 45‑foot Falcon 9 second (upper) stage left in a moon‑crossing high‑Earth orbit after a Jan. 15, 2025 launch that carried Firefly’s Blue Ghost‑1 and ispace’s Resilience lander.
- The impact is predicted for Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026 at about 2:34–2:44 a.m. ET near Einstein crater, with the stage striking at roughly 2.43 km/s (about 5,400 mph) and models estimating a new crater on the order of tens of meters wide.
- Researchers have published preprint simulations that predict a brief, potentially observable ejecta plume with a central spike possibly reaching 75–100 km altitude, though brightness and particle distribution remain uncertain.
- NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and other orbital and ground‑based teams have scheduled targeted before‑and‑after imaging and coordinated observations to localize the impact and measure plume and crater properties.
- The event underlines two operational issues: limited routine tracking capability for objects near lunar distance, which relies on optical observations and orbit modeling, and open questions about disposal practices and operator awareness for hardware beyond low‑Earth orbit.