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S&P Raises India’s FY26 GDP Growth Projection to 6.5%

The forecast rests on assumptions of a normal monsoon, lower crude oil prices, income-tax concessions, monetary easing.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is pictured outside its head office in Mumbai November 2, 2010. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/File Photo//File Photo
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Overview

  • S&P Global Ratings boosted India’s GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2025-26 to 6.5%.
  • The upgrade is based on expectations of a normal monsoon, easing crude oil prices, income-tax relief and potential interest rate cuts.
  • The Reserve Bank of India projects 6.5% growth for FY26 and has trimmed its inflation outlook to 3.7%.
  • Icra retained its own FY26 growth forecast at 6.2%, citing well-distributed rains and crude oil at around $70 a barrel while warning of elevated global risks.
  • S&P also sees India growing 6.7% in FY27 and expects inflation to average 4% in 2025, noting that well-supplied energy markets temper risks from Middle East tensions.