Overview
- S&P on Tuesday shifted Mexico’s sovereign outlook to negative and kept the BBB rating, warning a cut is possible within 24 months if deficits do not fall.
- S&P also put Pemex and CFE on negative outlook, keeping Pemex’s standalone profile at ccc+, as it views extraordinary state support as highly likely.
- The agency projects about 1% growth in 2026, a government deficit near 4.8% of GDP that year, and net public debt rising toward 54% of GDP by 2029.
- Mexico’s finance ministry on Wednesday said recent steps cut the public‑sector financing need by 1.5 percentage points and pledged more actions to restore a stable outlook.
- The shift aligns with Moody’s negative view while Fitch remains stable at BBB‑, and a downgrade could lift borrowing costs and force some investors to sell Mexican bonds.