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S&P Lifts South Africa to BB/BB+, First Sovereign Upgrade in 16 Years

The move reflects firmer public finances, with progress at Eskom lowering state risk.

Overview

  • S&P raised the long-term foreign-currency rating to BB from BB- and the local-currency rating to BB+ from BB, and kept the outlook positive.
  • The agency cited stronger growth prospects, better-than-budgeted revenue performance, and reduced contingent liabilities tied largely to Eskom’s turnaround.
  • Eskom posted its first profit in eight years, which S&P says lowers the likelihood of further government support for the utility.
  • S&P projects real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2025 and about 1.5% on average over 2026–2028, with a third consecutive primary budget surplus expected.
  • The rand strengthened after the announcement, S&P lifted the country’s Transfer & Convertibility assessment to BBB-, and further upgrades hinge on sustained reforms as the rating remains below investment grade.