Overview
- S&P Global Ratings confirmed Italy’s long-term rating at BBB+ and short-term rating at A-2 on November 13, 2026, and assigned a positive outlook.
- The agency said a steady improvement in Italy’s external position and recurring current-account surpluses are the main reasons it left the outlook positive.
- S&P warned that higher spending on energy, defence and interest costs will likely push the 2027 public deficit above prior forecasts but expects public debt to start falling from 2028.
- The rating agency named specific triggers for change: it could upgrade Italy if external finances strengthen, economic resilience to trade and energy shocks improves, or the debt-to-GDP ratio falls, and it could cut ratings if those paths reverse.
- S&P highlighted the role of Italy’s diversified private sector in supporting surpluses and noted that fiscal timing quirks such as Superbonus tax-credit cash flows and the 2027 national elections add near-term management risks for households and companies.