Overview
- S&P Global projects primary production peaking near 33 million metric tons in 2030, with demand rising to about 42 million metric tons by 2040, leaving an estimated 10 million ton gap without major expansion.
- Copper prices set records in late 2025, climbing roughly 44% for the year and topping $13,000 per metric ton, with tariffs and mine disruptions cited as pressures on supply.
- Demand growth is led by domestic electrification and grid buildouts, with additional pull from electric vehicles, renewables, data centers for AI, and other high‑tech uses.
- S&P notes new mines typically take about 17 years to come online, ore grades are declining, and recycling is likely to cover only around one‑third of supply by 2040, with telecom copper recovery adding roughly 800,000 tons.
- China’s control of roughly 40%–50% of smelting and refining heightens systemic risk, prompting S&P to call for streamlined permitting, stable investment frameworks, new technology, and more geographically diverse processing.