Overview

• Chinese exports to the Global South have doubled since 2015 to about US$1.6 trillion, far exceeding combined shipments to the United States and Western Europe.
• S&P reports Chinese companies are ramping investment and local production in developing markets, with annual flows to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam quadrupling over a decade to roughly US$8.8 billion.
• The report says tariff uncertainty under President Trump is propelling firms to diversify away from U.S. exposure as they build manufacturing bases for goods from electric vehicles to electronics.
• S&P says the reorientation could usher in a trade order led by Chinese multinationals, while U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has declared the WTO system over and news reports cite 50% tariffs on China, India and Brazil.
• China’s trade with its 20 largest Global South partners now averages 20% of those economies’ GDP, and more than half of China’s trade surplus is with these markets, though S&P notes local pushback risks over cheap imports.