Overview
- S&P Global’s new report projects annual copper demand rising to about 42 million metric tons by 2040, roughly 50% above 2025 levels.
- Without a rapid scale‑up in mining and recycling, the study projects a supply shortfall exceeding 10 million tons a year by 2040.
- The next demand wave is tied to electrification led by AI infrastructure, hyperscale data centers, defense equipment and industrial robotics rather than climate policy alone.
- S&P Global says production is on track to peak around 2030 even as demand keeps climbing, with processing capacity concentrated in China and major ore supplies in Chile and Peru.
- Market strains were visible in 2025 as copper prices jumped more than 43% to above $13,000 per ton on mine disruptions, a strike in Chile, trade frictions and stockpiling in U.S. warehouses.