Overview
- Gruenwald says the US is viewed as a less reliable partner, prompting countries to diversify trade and investment exposure.
- The final US tariff rate settled near 17% after higher early signals, while actual collections are estimated closer to 10%.
- Most costs have been absorbed by importers, wholesalers and retailers, with slower pass-through to consumers and no broad reshoring.
- A 12‑month extension in the US–China understanding has helped cap further escalation for now.
- India stands out as the fastest‑growing major emerging market with relatively low US dependence, and unresolved US tariff issues with India and Brazil may be resolved soon.