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3w ago

S&P Cuts Global Growth Forecasts as U.S. Tariff Policy Reshapes Economic Outlook

The agency reduces GDP projections for major economies, raises U.S. inflation expectations, and highlights heightened uncertainty without forecasting a U.S. recession.

S&P warns of 2025 slowdown, inflation jump as US tariffs ripple through global economy
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S&P Global Ranking, India, Growth Projection

Overview

  • S&P Global Ratings has lowered 2025-26 GDP growth forecasts, including a 60bps cut for the U.S. and similar reductions for Canada and Mexico.
  • India's growth projection is reduced to 6.3% for 2025-26, with China, Japan, and emerging Asia-Pacific economies also seeing significant downgrades.
  • The Eurozone's GDP forecast is down by 0.2 percentage points, with Germany facing the largest impact among its major economies.
  • U.S. inflation forecasts have been raised, but S&P does not currently anticipate a recession despite elevated risks and market volatility.
  • The report emphasizes the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy and its ripple effects on global supply chains and economic stability.