Overview

• S&P maintained a stable outlook and forecast that net general government debt will exceed 100% of GDP within three years.
• The agency projects average general government deficits of about 6% from 2025 to 2028, improving from 7.5% in 2024.
• Treasury reported a record US$28 billion in July customs duties, and Secretary Scott Bessent now expects 2025 tariff receipts to be well above 1% of GDP.
• The Congressional Budget Office estimates the recently passed budget law will add about US$3.4 trillion to deficits over the next decade.
• Economists caution that tariff-based revenue could fade if trade volumes fall, and market moves were modest on Aug 19 with 30-year yields near 4.94% and 10-year yields around 4.34%.