Overview
- The S&P 500 is up nearly 21% over the past year and about 41% since its April low, marking fresh highs in early 2026.
- The market-cap-to-GDP ratio known as the Buffett indicator is reported around 222%, its highest level on record.
- Warren Buffett warned in 2001 that readings approaching 200% suggest investors may be “playing with fire.”
- The ratio last neared 200% in November 2021 at roughly 193%, followed by a 2022 bear market in the S&P 500.
- Coverage emphasizes that no single metric is definitive, urging investors to assess risk and favor resilient businesses over trying to time a pullback.