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2d ago

S&P 500 Reaches Record Highs as Year-End Gains Stall

Elevated valuations paired with persistent policy uncertainty have analysts predicting minimal gains by year-end.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on June 23 as investors reacted to the U.S. striking three nuclear sites in Iran. 
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Overview

  • The S&P 500 closed at a record 6,173 after rebounding nearly 28% from its April low and posting roughly a 10% gain in the second quarter.
  • Forecasts published June 25 place the index between 5,600 and 6,100 by December, implying flat to modest returns for 2025.
  • High valuations and uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff plans and Federal Reserve rate moves are cited as key constraints on further upside.
  • Vanguard projects U.S. stocks to deliver just 3.8%–5.8% annually over the next decade, with growth shares trailing at 2.5%–4.5%.
  • Advisers urge long-term investors to stay invested and diversify into foreign equities, small-cap value stocks and other asset classes to manage lower return expectations.