Overview

• The S&P 500 climbed 0.8% to close within 0.05% of its February record, with the Nasdaq also approaching its all-time peak.
• Markets have lifted the probability of a July interest-rate cut to about 25% after a Wall Street Journal report that President Trump could name Jerome Powell’s successor by September or October.
• The US economy contracted 0.5% in the first quarter—worse than forecast—while initial jobless claims fell to 236,000, underscoring mixed economic signals.
• Several Fed officials have signaled support for cutting rates as soon as the July policy meeting, though Chair Powell has said he will await clearer evidence of tariff impacts.
• Investors are focused on Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for insight into tariff-driven price pressures.