Overview
- The index set fresh 2026 records, rising about 21% over the past year and roughly 41% from its April 2025 low.
- The market-value-to-GDP Buffett indicator is around 222%, surpassing the prior 2021 peak near 193% that preceded the 2022 downturn.
- The Shiller CAPE has reached territory previously seen only during the dot-com era, signaling prices well above long-term earnings trends.
- Recent gains reflect strong enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and a lower-rate environment that supports growth-oriented companies.
- Valuation signals have a mixed record for timing market turns, prompting calls for caution and emphasis on durable fundamentals.