Overview
- CBOT soybeans slipped 0.9% to about US$407.93 per tonne after touching roughly US$411.61 on Wednesday, yet prices remain more than US$30 higher than a month ago.
- Analysts link the rally to improved U.S.–China commercial signals, including a Chinese tariff adjustment on U.S. soy to 13%, which lifted sentiment despite persistent South American competition.
- Physical flows lag expectations, with about seven U.S. soy shipments to China and roughly 460,000 tonnes secured, while Brazil captured far more recent sales by offering lower prices.
- Market risk centers on fundamentals: a big Brazilian harvest could trim global prices by about US$20 per tonne, and limited Chinese buying could leave U.S. ending stocks near 14–15 million tonnes.
- Argentina’s temporary duty removal spurred record export declarations in September near 16 million tonnes and accelerated 2024/25 commercialization to about 38.4 million tonnes (around 75% of output), lifting local prices.