Overview
- SAGyP reports wheat harvested on 11% of area—over 700,000 hectares—marking the fastest early-season pace on record and driving a surge in truck deliveries.
- BCBA and BCR indicate soybean planting has topped 5% nationally, the core region sits near 25–30% for first-crop soy, and roughly 85% of fields show adequate to abundant moisture.
- Analysts say soybean output could exceed 50 million tons with export receipts above US$20 billion, implying roughly US$6 billion in duties if projections hold.
- China’s renewed buying from Argentina and reduced U.S. purchases have supported prices, with 2024/25 commercialization unusually advanced at about 39 million tons contracted, or roughly 78% of output.
- Producers face margin strain from export taxes and localized flooding along Route 5 plus heightened weed pressure, while Brazil’s projected 49 million-hectare soy area and slower-than-usual planting (about 47% progress) add uncertainty for 2026 supply timing.