Overview

• Kosmos-482, a Soviet Venus probe launched in 1972, failed to leave Earth orbit due to an upper-stage malfunction and is now in its final decay phase.
• Reentry is predicted between May 7 and May 13, with the most likely dates being May 9 or May 10, according to tracking experts.
• The probe's heat-shielded capsule, designed for Venus entry, may survive atmospheric reentry and reach Earth's surface intact.
• The reentry corridor spans latitudes between 52°N and 52°S, covering much of the inhabited world, but the chance of debris striking a person is extremely low—estimated at 1 in 10,000.
• This event highlights the challenges of managing aging space debris and raises questions about liability under international space law, with Russia responsible for any damage caused.