Overview
- The seasonal agro‑climate report raises the probability that the irregular 2025/26 La Niña will give way to El Niño, with effects expected to emerge gradually from spring 2026.
- Areas that usually turn wetter under El Niño — eastern Argentina, southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — face higher odds of above‑normal rain that can boost soil moisture but also raise flood, field access and crop disease risks.
- Zones that tend to dry out — including western Argentina — could see below‑normal rain and greater heat and water stress, which may ease field operations in places yet lower yields if irrigation or reserves fall short.
- Official short‑range forecasts illustrate the current weather swings, with Mexico’s Nayarit set for Thursday heat near 40°C and strong gusts, Galicia clearing after morning fog with brisk northerlies, and Argentina’s Buenos Aires region reporting Wednesday rains.
- The report says last season’s La Niña ran hot, dry and erratic, yet many farms still posted solid results thanks to technology and on‑farm management, underscoring what is at stake as 2026/27 planning meets a possible El Niño pattern.