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South Korea’s Q3 Growth Accelerates to 1.2% as Exports and Spending Rebound

Officials now expect full-year growth to exceed 1% following a stimulus-led rebound in spending.

Overview

  • Preliminary Bank of Korea data show GDP rose 1.2% quarter on quarter and 1.7% year on year, the fastest pace in six quarters.
  • Exports increased 1.5% on the quarter on strong semiconductor and automobile shipments, and manufacturing activity strengthened.
  • Private consumption climbed 1.3% as cash handouts and vouchers boosted spending, with facility investment up 2.4% and government outlays higher.
  • The finance ministry signaled an upgrade of its 2025 growth forecast to about 1%, and BOK Governor Rhee said this year’s expansion will likely top 1% with a revised outlook due in November.
  • U.S. tariff negotiations remain unresolved ahead of APEC meetings where President Lee plans to meet President Trump, with the BOK estimating a tariff-related growth drag of roughly 0.45 percentage point in 2025 and 0.6 point in 2026 as construction stays weak.