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South Korea’s Military Faces 50,000-Troop Shortfall After Force Shrinks 20%

A recent defense ministry study blames a 30% decline in enlistment-age men; it cautions that shorter conscription and modern systems may not close a 50,000-troop gap.

Members of the military take part in a military parade to mark the 76th anniversary of the armed forces day in Seoul, South Korea, October 1, 2024. REUTERS/Kim Soo-hyeon/File Photo
Members of the military march with a South Korean national flag during a military parade to mark the 76th anniversary of the armed forces day in Seoul, South Korea, October 1, 2024. REUTERS/Kim Soo-hyeon/File Photo
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Overview

  • Active-duty ranks fell from about 563,000 in 2019 to roughly 450,000 in 2025, marking a 20% reduction in six years.
  • The defense ministry estimates a 50,000-troop shortfall for maintaining readiness, including around 21,000 non-commissioned officers.
  • The population of 20-year-old males declined by 30% from 2019 to 2025 to about 230,000, shrinking the mandatory service pool.
  • Conscription was shortened to 18 months and officials point to enhanced capabilities, the U.S. alliance and a growing domestic arms industry as partial offsets.
  • With a record-low fertility rate of 0.75 in 2024 and projections for the population to drop to 36.2 million by 2072, long-term manpower pressures are expected to persist.