Overview
- The Education Ministry now estimates 298,178 first graders in 2026, the first time the cohort drops under 300,000.
- Officials moved the below‑300,000 timing up from 2027 after reassessing resident registration figures and actual enrollment rates.
- The ministry projects further declines: 277,674 in 2027, 262,309 in 2028, 247,591 in 2029, 232,268 in 2030, and 220,481 in 2031.
- Total enrollment across elementary, middle and high schools is forecast at 4,836,890 in 2026, down from 5,015,310 in 2025, with a glide toward about 3.81 million by 2031.
- The shrinking school‑age population is prompting school mergers and closures in rural and regional areas, pressuring regional universities’ freshman recruitment, and spurring union opposition to teacher reductions.