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South Korea’s Economy Sees Tentative Recovery Despite Persistent Downside Risks

Improved consumer sentiment and export gains underpin cautious optimism despite sluggish domestic spending.

Overview

  • July’s Green Book flagged weak consumer spending, sluggish construction investment and deteriorating export conditions as downside risks for a seventh month while omitting “increasing” to soften its assessment.
  • Consumer sentiment indexes have risen and domestic credit card spending grew 4.5%, offering a boost to retail prospects.
  • Exports rebounded 4.3% year-on-year in June on strong semiconductor demand and a 28.8% surge in Chinese tourist arrivals.
  • Over 180,000 jobs were added in June—the sixth month of growth—despite ongoing layoffs in manufacturing and construction.
  • Authorities plan to start distributing consumption coupons on July 21 and are fast-tracking a 31.8 trillion-won supplementary budget to reinvigorate spending.