Overview
- The Presidential Commission on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth endorsed a 2035 nationally determined contribution of a 53–61% cut from 2018 levels, using a 742.3 million-ton baseline that equates to 289.5–348.9 million tons in 2035.
- The commission set the 2026–2030 emissions trading cap at 2.53 billion tons, a 16.8% reduction from the prior phase, with free allocations preserved for leakage‑exposed sectors and the power sector’s purchasable allowances rising to 50% by 2030.
- Reduction expectations vary by sector, with power targeted for a 68.8–75.3% drop and transport 60.2–62.8%, while energy‑intensive manufacturing faces smaller cuts of 24.3–31%.
- The government plans to finalize the range at a Cabinet meeting and present the updated pledge at COP30 in Belém, alongside a support package spanning financing, technology development and regulatory changes, plus enhancements to the carbon market.
- Industry groups from 14 associations warned of higher costs, competitiveness risks and potential job losses, as environmental groups criticized the range as insufficient to meet climate needs.