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South Korea Inflation Reaccelerates to 2.4% in October, Challenging Rate-Cut Bets

The upside surprise is reducing expectations for near-term easing by the Bank of Korea.

Overview

  • Government data show CPI rose 2.4% from a year earlier with a 0.3% monthly gain, the fastest annual pace since July 2024.
  • Core inflation excluding food and energy picked up to 2.2% year on year from 2.0% in September.
  • Agricultural, livestock and fishery prices jumped 2.3%, adding about 0.25 percentage point to headline inflation, with pork up 6.1% and mackerel up 11%.
  • Industrial goods rose 3.5% year on year, services increased 2.5%, and petroleum products climbed 4.8%.
  • Analysts say the stronger print is likely to delay anticipated rate cuts, keeping policy restrictive for longer and offering support to the won and short-end yields.