Overview
- The Education Ministry now projects 298,178 new first graders in 2026, the first time below 300,000, down 15.5 percent from 2024 and 25.8 percent over three years.
- Total enrollment across elementary, middle and high schools is estimated at 4,836,890 this year, falling below 5 million and on track to decline to 3,811,087 by 2031.
- Officials moved the sub‑300,000 threshold forward from 2027 to 2026 after reviewing registered population data and enrollment rates, with first‑grade projections sliding to 277,674 in 2027 and 220,481 in 2031.
- Shrinking cohorts are driving school closures and straining regional universities, and thousands of schools are operating below authorized staffing levels while contract teachers exceed 60,000.
- Teachers’ groups are urging the government to stop quota reductions as classrooms grow more complex, and local media have reported a roughly 27 percent cut in planned hiring of new elementary teachers to 3,113 this year.