Overview

• Doug Sosnik, a former Clinton adviser, says Democrats are unlikely to see the typical midterm surge even with Trump’s weak marks on issues like the economy and inflation.
• He attributes the constraint to a long-running realignment by education that has concentrated Democratic strength among college‑educated voters, who are not a majority of the electorate.
• Sosnik highlights a narrowed battlefield, noting Democrats need four Senate pickups but only six seats are competitive, three of which they already defend, with roughly 18 House districts rated as toss‑ups.
• He points to GOP advantages in mid‑decade redistricting, voter registration and fundraising as reinforcing factors that could blunt Democratic opportunities next year.
• Recent reports cite large Republican fundraising hauls, including $85 million combined for Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation and $60 million for House GOP allies versus $40 million for Democratic counterparts, alongside party accounts showing a sizable RNC cash lead.