Overview

• Doug Sosnik, a former senior adviser to Bill Clinton, writes that Democrats are unlikely to notch large midterm pickups in 2026 despite President Trump’s weak approval ratings.
• He attributes the ceiling on gains to a long-running realignment centered on education level, with Democrats gaining among college graduates while losing working-class and rural voters.
• Sosnik notes Democrats’ core support comes from college-educated voters who form a minority of the electorate, concentrating Democratic strength in highly educated states and districts.
• He highlights structural GOP advantages, citing mid-decade redistricting, party registration and fundraising that could further insulate Republicans next year.
• The memo says only six Senate races look competitive, with Democrats defending half, and roughly 18 House districts are true toss-ups, and it cautions that 2026 results will reveal little about 2028.