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Solar Surges Globally as Wind and Solar Supply 91% of New U.S. Capacity

New forecasts point to heavy U.S. solar additions through 2028 that, if built, would materially shift the capacity balance.

Overview

  • Global solar installations reached 380 GW in the first half of 2025, a 64% year-over-year increase led by China’s 256 GW, according to Ember.
  • In the U.S., solar and wind made up roughly 91% of new generating capacity added in the first half of 2025, with solar providing about 81.5% of June additions and 74.9% of H1 utility-scale builds, FERC data show.
  • Developers surveyed by the EIA plan another 21 GW of U.S. solar in the second half of 2025; if all 64 GW of planned 2025 capacity additions come online, it would set a new annual record.
  • FERC’s “high probability” pipeline projects 92,660 MW of net new solar from July 2025 to June 2028, more than four times the expected wind additions of 23,136 MW.
  • Renewables account for about 32.17% of U.S. utility-scale capacity today, and analysis of FERC data suggests renewables could surpass natural gas capacity by 2029 if pipeline projects materialize.