Overview
- NOAA and Spain’s AEE report elevated Solar Cycle 25 activity that could yield severe G4–G5 geomagnetic storms from merged “cannibal” CMEs.
- Such storms can expand the auroral oval toward lower latitudes, making sightings possible in parts of Spain as demonstrated by the widespread May 2024 event.
- Scientists stress that small errors in solar-wind measurements and the uncertain southward Bz component can shift arrival times by hours and alter storm strength.
- Space-weather forecasting is focused on safeguarding infrastructure because strong storms can disrupt satellites, power grids, GPS and radio communications.
- Local reports suggest potential late-October viewing windows and recommend Kp-based alerts, but agencies have not confirmed specific dates and naked-eye displays are often subtler than photographs.