Overview
- A peer-reviewed Environmental Research Letters study modeled 2036–2045 under two stratospheric aerosol injection temperature targets versus no intervention across 18 key regions in western Europe, South America and West Africa.
- Although the approach reduced average temperatures, it did not consistently restore suitable growing conditions, with only six of the 18 regions showing reliable improvement.
- Variable rainfall, shifting humidity and crop disease risk, together with natural climate variability, produced uneven and unpredictable outcomes across regions.
- By linking modeled suitability to historical export data, the authors projected large revenue volatility, including nearly $60 billion between best and worst cases for France’s wine sector.
- The team describes stratospheric aerosol injection as speculative and not a guaranteed agricultural fix, recommending locally tailored adaptation and more resilient farming systems.