Overview

• At the All‑In Summit, Anatoly Yakovenko put the odds at roughly 50/50 that a quantum breakthrough capable of running Shor’s algorithm arrives within five years.
• The warned risk targets Bitcoin’s ECDSA signatures, where a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive private keys and forge transactions.
• Some reports estimate that about 25–30% of BTC sits at addresses with exposed public keys, and even typical transaction confirmation windows could create attack opportunities.
• Upgrading to post‑quantum signatures would likely require a contentious hard fork plus extensive wallet and node changes, and there is no agreed migration plan.
• Industry figures including Adam Back, Peter Todd, and Luke Dashjr question the near‑term threat, while Yakovenko points to rapid AI progress and potential Google or Apple adoption of quantum‑safe stacks as a migration signal.