Solana Tests $100 Support as ETF Outflows and Leverage Threaten Recovery

Overview

• Solana fell to an intraday low near $100.62 before rebounding to about $106, a move recorded on Oct. 15 that left the token trading roughly 14–16% below late‑September highs.
• Short‑term technicals show weakening momentum, with negative MACD and declining on‑balance volume, and the weekly 50‑period average near $98.99 sits just below the $100 area.
• U.S. spot Solana ETFs have recorded eight to nine consecutive sessions of net outflows, including $1.29 million on Oct. 14, which has removed a steady source of demand during the pullback.
• Derivative liquidation maps show clustered leverage around $100–$105 and overhead concentrations near $108–$115 and $123–$125, creating the risk of rapid moves or squeezes if key levels fail or flip.
• The Solana Foundation expects the Alpenglow upgrade to target roughly 150‑millisecond finality with a planned Oct. 21 activation that requires validators to upgrade clients, and on‑chain growth in tokenized equities (about $611 million across 1.42 million holders) provides a possible medium‑term demand tailwind.