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Bayrou Poised to Lose Confidence Vote, Focus Shifts to Succession

Attention now turns to succession scenarios, with the PS pressing its case for Matignon.

Overview

  • The Socialist Party says its vote against the government on 8 September is irreversible and is proposing to govern on its own budgetary basis with an effort roughly half of Bayrou’s €44 billion plan while pledging not to use 49.3.
  • Les Républicains are divided after Laurent Wauquiez signaled he would not automatically censure a PS-led cabinet and Bruno Retailleau warned there would be no blank check, a rift the party aims to address at its weekend congress.
  • Emmanuel Macron has urged his governing bloc to work with the Socialists, while the RN demands a new dissolution and vows to censure any successor that continues the current fiscal line.
  • Bayrou intensifies a media push defending his plan as a slowdown in spending rather than austerity, yet no new parliamentary support has surfaced and he has begun acknowledging scenarios for handling current affairs after a likely fall.
  • Street pressure is building as the 'Bloquons tout' action set for 10 September draws majority sympathy in polls, feeding concerns about political deadlock and market nerves.