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Social Security Shortfall Risk Refocuses Retirement Planning on 2026 Catch-Ups and Claim Timing

Advisors urge tax‑smart income sequencing to prepare for projected Social Security shortfalls.

Overview

  • Trustees project the Social Security and Medicare trust funds face insolvency in roughly eight years, with CRFB estimating about a 23% Social Security benefit cut by 2033 absent reforms.
  • More than half of workers expect to rely on Social Security, yet the average retired worker benefit was $2,008 per month as of August 2025, underscoring the need for additional income sources.
  • Gen X shows a fragile retirement foundation with median savings of $6,000 for women and $13,000 for men and only 14% with pensions, while 52.5% of boomers hold under $250,000 and more are working past 65.
  • IRS rules for 2026 allow larger late‑career savings: IRA catch‑ups of $1,100 (total $8,600), 401(k) catch‑ups of $8,000 (total $32,500), and a special 60–63 catch‑up of $11,250 (total $35,750).
  • Experts highlight delaying Social Security to increase benefits about 8% per year up to age 70, structuring withdrawals to limit taxes, and maintaining a prudent mix of stocks to manage longevity and inflation risks.