Social Security Projected to Exhaust Reserves in 2034

Overview

• The Social Security Board of Trustees' 2026 projections show the combined Old‑Age and Disability trust funds will be unable to pay full scheduled benefits beginning in 2034.
• At the point of depletion, continuing payroll tax income is projected to cover roughly 83% of scheduled benefits in 2034 and about 65% by 2100 under the trustees' intermediate assumptions.
• The program is financed mainly by a 12.4% payroll tax split evenly between workers and employers, applies to earnings up to $184,500 in 2026, and held about $2.56 trillion in Treasury securities at the end of 2025.
• Social Security has run annual cash‑flow deficits since 2010 and the trustees project revenues will fall short of benefits each year through the 75‑year valuation period, creating a long‑term actuarial shortfall that requires either more revenue, lower benefits, or both.
• Policymakers face politically difficult choices—such as raising payroll taxes, changing the taxable maximum, trimming benefit rules or cutting COLAs—and any delay raises the size of changes needed and the risks to beneficiaries, especially lower‑income retirees who depend on Social Security for a large share of their income.