Overview

• Social Security’s combined trust funds are now projected to deplete in 2034, one year sooner than last year’s estimate, driven largely by the Social Security Fairness Act and demographic changes.
• Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund is expected to run dry in 2033, three years ahead of prior forecasts, as higher hospital and hospice spending accelerates reserve drawdown.
• Automatic cuts would reduce Social Security benefits by 19% in 2034 and trim Medicare Part A payments by 11% in 2033 if lawmakers fail to act.
• Trustees warn that closing Social Security’s long-term shortfall requires an immediate payroll tax increase of 3.82 percentage points or alternative reforms.
• Social Security filings have surged 17% through May 2025 amid slower wage growth and prolonged low fertility rates, compounding the programs’ financial strain.