São Paulo’s Medical Workforce Hits 197,000, New Study Warns of Residency Shortfall and Uneven Supply

Overview

• São Paulo has about 197,000 doctors in 2025, a 66% increase since 2015, with projections of more than 235,000 by 2030 and roughly 340,000 by 2035.
• Medical education expanded to 87 schools in a decade, with approximately 92% of undergraduate vacancies offered by private institutions.
• In the Campinas health region, medical school seats rose from 13.87 to 22.63 per 100,000 residents since 2015, totaling 1,093 places in 2025 across 10 schools, nearly 90% of them private.
• Specialists remain 60% of the workforce (about 117,700), yet generalists have climbed to roughly 80,000, a trend APM links to limited residency slots and what it calls indiscriminate course openings.
• Availability is uneven across regions, with Ribeirão Preto near 5.2 doctors per 1,000 residents versus about 2.1 in Registro, and only 57 municipalities hosting residency programs concentrated largely in Greater São Paulo.