Overview

• First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field in the opener between the division-leading Phillies and second-place Mets.
• Probable starters: Philadelphia lefty Cristopher Sánchez (11–4, 2.46 ERA) faces New York right-hander Kodai Senga (7–5, 2.58).
• Philadelphia enters seven games ahead of New York in the NL East, while the Mets hold a 1.5-game edge for the third wild card.
• Dimers’ model gives the Phillies a 52% win probability but identifies the Mets moneyline at +106 as the best value play; Mets +1.5 is projected to cover 61%, and the total has a 51% chance to stay under 8.
• Sánchez’s breakout season includes 157 innings, a 2.46 ERA and a league-leading 6.2 bWAR, while Mets notes include Francisco Alvarez and Jose Siri beginning rehab work and reliever Reed Garrett hitting the IL with right elbow inflammation as José Castillo is recalled.