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Sánchez Advances Budget Gamble Without Junts, Warns Defeat Could Carry Costs

The minority government is pairing gestures toward Junts with EU‑funds legislation to avoid paralysis.

Overview

  • After a two‑year hiatus, the government will table new national budgets, with Sánchez cautioning that a defeat in Congress “may have consequences.”
  • Beyond the accounts, the executive needs Cortes approval of structural reforms to unlock remaining EU recovery payments, and María Jesús Montero plans to unveil a regional financing proposal in January to secure ERC’s cooperation before presenting the budgets.
  • To reopen channels with Junts, the cabinet backed measures it sought, including more flexibility for municipal investment and a delay to mandatory e‑invoicing for the self‑employed, though the rupture has not been resolved.
  • Moncloa views Carles Puigdemont’s eventual return under an effective amnesty—dependent on the TJUE path and subsequent rulings—as the lever to reconfigure Junts, making near‑term Junts support for the budgets unlikely.
  • The early Extremadura election on 21 December starts a new regional cycle, with PP leader María Guardiola favored without an outright majority, Vox poised as a potential partner, and PSOE candidate Miguel Ángel Gallardo campaigning under a formal prosecution as Sánchez seeks to energize supporters.