Overview
- Model guidance points to cyclogenesis organizing on Saturday, August 30, with the most intense phase from Saturday night into early Sunday and conditions remaining unsettled through Sunday.
- The SMN highlights La Pampa, Córdoba, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and Buenos Aires as most exposed, with additional impacts possible in Mendoza and San Luis, and yellow to orange alerts in parts of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and Chaco.
- Forecasts call for 40–70 mm of rain in a few hours in some areas, strong wind gusts, hail and frequent lightning, following several warm, humid days.
- In the AMBA, Sunday is expected to be the most disruptive period, and Meteored estimates monthly rainfall there could approach 200 mm versus a 70 mm August average.
- The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects an irregular event focused on the centre‑east agricultural zone and says this setup portends a disturbed spring–summer, while authorities urge close monitoring because local impacts remain uncertain.