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Small-Business Optimism Slips to 98.2 as Earnings and Sales Weaken

Earnings deterioration emerged as the clearest warning sign for small firms.

Overview

  • Reports of rising profits fell nine points to a net negative 25% in October, the largest drag on the NFIB index.
  • Sales softened, with a net negative 13% reporting higher nominal sales, and more owners now rating their business health as fair rather than good.
  • Hiring remained strained as 32% of owners had unfilled positions and 27% cited labor quality as their top problem, especially in construction.
  • NFIB’s uncertainty index dropped 12 points to 88, the lowest this year, even as the prolonged government shutdown and tariff policy continued to cloud planning with Congress moving toward an end to the stoppage.
  • Price pressures cooled somewhat, with a net 21% raising prices and a net 30% planning price increases over the next three months.